Two recent reports, touching on the African condition, call for sobriety in the face of analyses by influential Western media, that trumpet significant economic growth and opportunity on the continent.
The first, the Mo Ibrahim Governance Index, which rates 54 African countries on such criteria as security, human rights, economic stability, just laws, free elections, corruption, infrastructure, poverty, health, and education, says that progress has for all practical purposes been stalled on these scores since it last reported in 2011.
Twenty-one nations fell below their previous mark on the Index. Gains reported four years earlier in human rights were eclipsed by deteriorating safety, and lack of economic opportunity, especially in the resource-rich countries, and by growing vulnerability of the banks. Conditions in 11 of the commodity-exporting countries, including Nigeria, grew worse, according to the report.
Mauritius topped the Index, followed by Cape Verde, Botswana, South Africa, and Namibia, in that order. Instructively, the countries that have moved up on the Index are the ones that have diversified their economy, among them Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe, Senegal, Morocco, Egypt, Madagascar, and Tunisia.
In the critical area of infrastructure, Nigeria was ranked 39 of the 54 countries on the Index, below Ivory Coast, Cameroun, and Djibouti.
Overall, however, what emerges from the survey is not so much deterioration as stagnation, contrary to the picture in many influential Western publications of an Africa unbound.
The second report, from the World Bank, paints a grimmer picture of the Nigerian and African condition. It states that Nigeria and other sub-Sahara African nations account for half of the world’s poor.
Several decades ago, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia and sub-Sahara Africa together accounted for 95 per cent of global poverty, according to the report. In 1990, East Asia accounted for 5 per cent of global poverty; the corresponding figure for sub-Sahara Africa was 15 per cent. In a stunning reversal some 25 years later, East Asia’s share of global poverty was down to 12 per cent, while sub-Sahara Africa’s shore of palpable poverty shot up to 50 per cent.
The report notes that poverty is declining in all regions – in sub-Sahara Africa, it fell from 56 per cent in 1990 to 35 per cent in 2015 — but it is becoming deeper and more entrenched in countries that are either conflict-ridden or overly dependent on commodity exports. Nigeria exemplifies both conditions.
Like the Africa Governance Index, the World Bank report attributes the enduring poverty to conflict and dependency on commodity prices, but adds a third factor: rapid population growth.
The lessons for Nigeria here are clear. It is time to stop bemoaning the nation’s dependence and move aggressively to diversify the economy. The vast agricultural and mining potential are waiting to be harnessed. But this cannot be done without a solid network of roads and rail tracks, navigable waterways, and steady power supply.
The war on official corruption must be pursued without compromise. Under former President Goodluck Jonathan, 400,000 barrels – or 20 per cent of daily output – was being stolen, and the government appeared powerless to do anything about it.
Vast fortunes accrued to favoured or well-connected persons as subsidies for bogus imports of refined petroleum products, and contractors claimed hefty fees for work not done at all or only half-completed. The checks and balances that should undergird the presidential system of government were inoperative.
These leakages will have to be plugged and corrupt officials brought to justice.
THE NATION